Detroit Tigers: Edwin Jackson? Is that the best you could do?

The Detroit Tigers were the team that baseball analysts across the country chose as the sure-fire AL representative in the 2008 World Series prior to the season. The trade for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis had to work. Trading for two of the game's young stars in exchange for two prospects, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, not yet prepared for the MLB stage was a no-brainer. Acquiring the dependable veteran Edgar Renteria, coming off of a career year, in exchange for the middling outfield prospect Gorkys Hernandez and a talented, young pitcher in Jair Jurrjens looked to be a great win-now move as well.

One year later, we look upon this team of destiny as an utter disappointment, and no major changes were made at all.

The only changes that were significant were the signing of Brandon Lyon to compete for closer and signing Gerald Laird, a competent catcher who is great at throwing out runners, to take over for Pudge.

The Detroit Tigers offense in general was a big positive. Miguel Cabrera started slow but he had an amazing second half, with 26 HRs and 79 RBIs in a mere three months. The impressive thing about Miguel Cabrera's season last year, his .292 average of last year was a bad year in average for him, hitting .320+ in the past three seasons. He only has room to improve and could even make a run at the AL Triple Crown if he doesn't slump early in the season.

Magglio was his dependable self, hitting .300+ with 21 HRs and 103 RBIs, cementing his status as the most consistent Tiger on this team. Curtis Granderson never got in a consistent groove last year, yet still had his best statistical year of his career. Some will point to his 2007 season and his .300 average with 23 HRs and 26 SBs, but last year Granderson truly matured as a player. His walk rate increased from 10 to 11.4% (the highest of his career), while his strikeout rate sharply fell to 20.1% (the lowest of his career.) This shows he has taken major steps to become a more disciplined hitter.

The only true disappointments were Edgar Renteria who had an abysmal sub .700 OPS and Brandon Inge whose hitting has declined steadily through the years.

The problem with the Tigers was the pathetic excuse they called a pitching staff. The projected rotation this year includes Justin Verlander (coming off a dreadful year where he led MLB in losses with 17), Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galaragga, Edwin Jackson, and Nate Robertson/Dontrelle Willis/Zach Miner. Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones have left the team, and as much as us fans may hate Todd Jones, in the end, he delivered more often than not.

Verlander can't pitch much worse than he did this past season, having an ERA near 5, and giving up 4 or more earned runs in 16 of his 33 outings, in comparison with his past two years when he had 18 of those outings combined. The speed of his fastball has fallen each of the past three seasons, and his offspeed pitches have increased in speed. A great pitcher has a great variance in speeds of his fastball and his offspeed pitches, and Verlander's arsenal is becoming less dangerous through the years. His fastball was 95.1 MPH on average in 2006, and was only 93.6 in 2008. That may not seem like a drastic difference, but when he stops throwing 100 MPH fastballs and is only throwing right around that average of 93-94 MPH fastballs, he is a completely different pitcher. He also saw his walk rate increase drastically. As sad as this is to say, it seems that Verlander got the Bonderman treatment. He was appointed as the next Tigers ace, and simply may not be able to live up to those lofty expectations. He can be a solid #2 starter, but I don't believe he's in the sport's elite group of pitchers any longer.

Armando Galaragga is the lone pitching bright spot of last year, who benefitted from an abnormally low BABIP. His .250 BABIP against was the third lowest of any MLB starter which is a horrifying statistic. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) takes strikeouts and walks out of the equation and calculates batting average solely from contact in at-bats for a hitter or against a pitcher. League average for BABIP against is .301. He is not an overpowering pitcher, throwing 90-92, and never had MLB success prior to last year. His strikeout and walk rates are completely average, and he left over 75% of his runners on base, when the league average is 70%. Even more alarming is that this .250 BABIP came with the defense of Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Cabrera behind him. Galaragga still somehow managed to have one of the biggest fluke years in MLB last year with one of the poorer infield defensive groupings in the league behind him. I'd look for his ERA to skyrocket to around 4.25-4.5 this year, and he will be a far less effective pitcher.

Edwin Jackson had a career year last year, and still profiled as a #4 or #5 pitcher in the AL. Nate Robertson is horrible, as is Dontrelle Willis who I won't even get into because it's not even worth considering him as an alternative. (34 walks in 24 innings? HOW?!?!?) I see Zach Miner winning the job out of these three, unless they do throw the stud prospect Rick Porcello into the fire this year and put him in the 5th starter slot.

In the bullpen, the Tigers made a quality signing in Brandon Lyon to the bullpen, but can he be a reliable closer? He is built in the mold of a Todd Jones, pitching to contact, and valuing control over overwhelming pitches, dictating where the hitter has to hit the ball. Zumaya and the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball, Fernando Rodney, will also be in contention for the closing job. The Tigers bullpen is servicable, with specialists such as Bobby Seay and Clay Rapada having good seasons, but the back end of the bullpen is quite unreliable. Numerous Tigers reliever prospects will likely see time in the majors this season such as Ryan Perry, who may even make the opening day roster.

As unfortunate as it is, it seems that this Tigers team is more likely to be a mediocre to below average AL Central team than the world-beater that they were sold as prior to the 2008 season unless some serious changes take place.

Projected lineup:
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Miguel Cabrera
LF Carlos Guillen
DH Gary Sheffield
C Gerald Laird
3B Brandon Inge
SS Adam Everett

Projected Rotation:
Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson, Zach Miner

Projected Record: 80-82, 4th place AL Central