Wednesday, April 29, 2009

The Detroit Pistons: Finally at the end of their descent to mediocrity.

Forty-seven. A number that most fans thought would be the Pistons' win total in the 2008-2009 season. Instead, the season full of turmoil and confusion gave us 47 losses, the final four in the form of utter domination at the hands of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

There has to be more than one reason that the Pistons fell from a championship team to a below .500 team that didn't even deserve to be in the playoffs. And there are three major ones.

1.) Chauncey Billups' departure to Denver.

I must say I was an advocate of this trade because I knew our core of Chauncey, Rip, Tayshaun and Sheed wasn't getting back to the Finals again. I did realize it made us a worse team, but I never could have realized to this extent. This season showed that Billups really was the last bit of glue holding this team together. As soon as he left, chaos ensued.

Rip, AI, and Stuckey fought for playing time throughout the year. Hell, who am I kidding, Dumars' mancrush Rodney Stuckey was never going to see the bench. Stuckey was forced into pointguard duties and the team suffered as a result. Rip had the lowest shooting percentage of his career because the offense was loaded on his back and Stuckey's passes to Rip coming around picks simply aren't as quick and crisp as Chauncey's were. Chauncey and Rip had a psychological connection and each knew exactly what the other would do. Stuckey and Rip can't operate on that level yet, and probably never will. The 7 years of chemistry that Chauncey and Rip built can't be duplicated by many tandems in the NBA. Chauncey and Rip made each other better and separately we're seeing how Rip fares with a far worse PG.

Iverson was a horrible fit for the Pistons, and I really hope Dumars didn't believe it would help the team this season. Iverson takes plays off on defense and doesn't pass when on offense. The whole core of the 03-04 championship team aged and just aren't the same now, they had a good run while it lasted, but Chauncey leaving was the last straw.

2.) Michael Curry sucks.

Here's a portion of an ESPN.com article written after the Pistons' first game with Iverson.

When Detroit needed buckets in the fourth quarter, it was Stuckey running the show at the point, with Iverson off the ball. And when the Pistons needed stops in the second half, it was Stuckey who continually was getting burned by Devin Harris (career-high 38 points, with 22 of his 24 free throw attempts coming in a second half in which Detroit surrendered 64 points to one of the NBA's worst teams). All that time, Pistons coach Michael Curry refused to switch Iverson onto Harris; even as Stuckey was committing five fourth-quarter fouls on Harris.

"Stuckey's the point, and Harris is the point. What we do here in Detroit, you guard your position. And when he comes into the game, Allen slides to the 2, and if Devin Harris is outplaying you, you're going to have to get better. That's what you're going to have to do, play your matchup," Curry said.

What a genius! Curry is stubborn and really doesn't know what he's doing, the Pistons simply don't have the personnel to support his idealistic approach to defense. Even back in the 2003-2004 season, while the players were better on individual defense than they are now, the team defense was what shone, and since Larry Brown left, the Pistons have never returned to the defensive identity that they flourished with. The Flip Saunders experiment failed with the offensive Pistons struggling to close out games defensively. Michael Curry's team has no identity whatsoever and I don't believe he's helping matters.

The Pistons use a half-court offense, with a PG who should be at SG and can't even initiate an offense properly. Curry's refusal (and possibly Dumars' refusal) to play Stuckey anywhere else on the floor is absurd, and is never going to benefit this Pistons team.

The only players who were anything close to efficient on defense were Maxiell (when at PF), Rasheed, McDyess, Amir Johnson, and Kwame Brown. And who would be missing from that group? EVERY PERIMETER PLAYER ON THE PISTONS. The Pistons defense consistently gave up easy drives to the basket and penetration. Stuckey isn't quick enough defensively to keep up with PGs like Devin Harris, Rajon Rondo, Derrick Rose, etc.

The perimeter defense got so bad at times this year that Michael Curry went to zone defense. Zone defense should end in college, NBA players are the most athletic players at their craft in the world, yet they can't keep up with their counterparts on defense? NBA players and teams as a whole are far too savvy to be stifled by a zone, they rip it to shreds by attacking the weak points systematically and completely frustrating the defense. Until a coach comes back to the Pistons that knows how to match up his personnel properly on defense and can motivate his players to be defensive stalwarts the way Larry Brown did, this Pistons team will be nothing more than mediocre.

3. Joe Dumars' drafting and free agency signings.

Joe D.'s "best" free agency moves over the past few years include signing the following: Nazr Mohammed, Kwame Brown, Flip Murray and Jarvis Hayes, while he acquired below average benchwarmers such as Walter Hermann, Primoz Brezec, and Juan Dixon through trade, apart from the Iverson deal.

Where are the impact players, Joe? Remember a couple years back when you said anyone could be traded? Then why weren't they? I understand it can be hard to work out a trade but I don't believe for a damn second that no one made what could have been considered a good offer for Tayshaun Prince. Hell, Amare Stoudemire was on the block this year and what did Joe Dumars do? Watch some Rodney Stuckey game tape and keep his prized trophy draft pick exempt from trade talks. Dumars becomes attached to his players too easily and while chaotic trades every other year aren't the key to success, hitting on SOME trades are. In the beginning of his tenure, Dumars brought in Rip, Ben Wallace, and Chauncey who formed a good core. To win the championship he acquired Rasheed, and drafted Tayshaun shortly before the championship. Those moves had potential impact.

How are Primoz Brezec and Nazr Mohammed going to improve this team?

Joe Dumars has failed to recognize the true need of this team, a post-scoring presence. Rasheed can be one of the better players in the NBA when he feels like it, but now during games, he often looks like he's practicing for the 3-Point Shootout, shooting 5 threes a game. McDyess and Sheed operate their best away from the basket, McDyess on 15 foot jumpers and Sheed on turn around post up jumpers. But the Pistons haven't had a banger inside that can score and don't have the offense outside to survive without one.

Now the Pistons can add a new need to a post-scoring presence, a pointguard that can lead the offense. It's not Rodney Stuckey. Unfortunately, the sad truth is that Rodney Stuckey is going to be the point guard for the majority of the time he's here, because Dumars and Curry so badly want him to turn into Chauncey Billups' clone.

Let's take a look at the Pistons' drafts from the last five years.
  • D.J. White (2008 1st round): Traded to the Thunder before the season.
  • Deron Washington (2008 2nd round): Playing in Israel currently. A high-flying SG/SF who has little offensive game outside the basket and played decent to good defense.
  • Rodney Stuckey (2007 1st round): Player that Joe Dumars believes is a PG/SG when he is only suited for the latter. He was a scorer in college, not a distributor. The apple of Joe Dumars' eye.
  • Arron Afflalo (2007 1st round): Backup guard for the Pistons who was thought to be able to matchup against the opponent's best guard on defense.
  • Sammy Mejia (2007 2nd round): Waived by Pistons in 2007, a versatile athletic 6'6" SG/SF that couldn't find his niche or stay healthy.
  • Will Blalock (2006 2nd round): lol.
  • Jason Maxiell (2005 1st round): Good energy player off the bench, 6'7" with long arms, a PF, but used as a PF/C.
  • Amir Johnson (2005 1st round): Came straight out of high school, has no offensive game, but is good defensively. Another player that Dumars is attached to.
  • Alex Acker (2004 2nd round): lol.

So the only notable players in the last five years out of the draft are Jason Maxiell and Rodney Stuckey. Maxiell is utilized properly, but is also making 5 million to play about 20 minutes a game where he provides no offense, while the rest of the Pistons' interior defense is serviceable to good. Stuckey is a SG that doesn't have a solid 3 point or long jump shot, has a decent mid-range shot and can drive to the basket near willingly, but plays point guard.

Looking through recent draft history, we can see that Joe drafted 3 big men in the last five years, and DJ White didn't even make it to the preseason. Ben Wallace left in 2006, and the only pick in 06 was wasted on Will Blalock. Dumars loves versatile players or guards apparently, because every draftee falls into that group, except DJ White, who's gone.

Dumars needs to take a step back and look at the deep hole he's dug the Pistons into and get them out of it. Carlos Boozer is a free agent this year and would fill the Pistons' need at PF, and a PG like Raymond Felton would be a solid signing as well, but the Pistons can only afford to sign one this offseason. If the Pistons don't sign any major players this offseason, the next few years could be ugly.

Monday, April 27, 2009

Lions Draft Analysis

The NFL Draft has come to a close, and for the 0-16 Lions, that means they have to try to fit their newly acquired rookies into roles on the team to prevent 0-16 again. So how did the Lions do this year?

1. Matthew Stafford, QB, Georgia at #1 overall: Grade: C. Does Stafford have the potential to be a good quarterback? Yes. Does he have the potential to be a top-5 quarterback in this league? No. That's why I've been so against the pick of Stafford since it was reported months ago that he was the favorite to be selected. Not only that, but the Lions didn't even draft an offensive lineman in the first 3 rounds of the draft, so he can't expect much help up front. They did however provide him with a safety valve at their next pick.

2. Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Oklahoma State at #20 overall. Grade: A. Pettigrew is EASILY the best tight end this year, and at times will look like a 6th offensive lineman for the Lions (which everyone knows they could use). He projects to be like Bubba Franks in my opinion. A great blocker for his whole career who is as I said earlier, a great safety valve for the quarterback within 10 to 15 yards of the line of scrimmage. And like Franks, he will be a valuable red zone weapon as well.

3. Louis Delmas, S, Western Michigan at #33 overall. Grade: A-. Delmas shot up draft boards this year, from a 3rd round grade to just missing out on the first round here. He should be a constant at SS for the Lions for years to come. He is fairly versatile in coverage and athletic, so he gives them the ability to rush more linebackers and run zone blitzes more often than the previous Lions coaching staff could. I think Laurinaitis would have been a better pick here personally, and I would have taken him at 20 if I were the Lions, but Delmas looks to be the appointed leader of this defense for the time being.

4. Deandre Levy, WLB, Wisconsin at #76 overall. Grade: C-. I'm confused, do the Lions see something in Chris Graham or Cody Spencer that I don't? Two problems: Ernie Sims is a fixture at WLB, and no team starts 2 WLBs in the NFL. They needed a MLB, and opted for a quick, smaller linebacker as far as the NFL is concerned at 236 pounds. He has the speed to play on the weakside and likely will see some time there giving Ernie Sims a rest here and there. This pick either means the new regime isn't pleased with Ernie Sims' play, or that they didn't know Deandre Levy's position when they drafted him. I'm going to go with the latter.

5. Derrick Williams, WR, Penn State at #82 overall. Grade: A. This actually is a great pick here. I'm not the biggest fan of Derrick Williams at all, but one thing that can't be said about Williams is that he's unathletic. The former #1 receiver of his 2005 recruiting class underwhelemed at Penn State, but still was a big play threat. He was used a lot on screens however, so he can probably use some polishing in route running. Don't be surprised to see Williams used in a Percy Harvin fashion, at slot receiver, occasionally in the backfield, and as the main kick and punt returner. He's worth the pick here and could end up providing the Lions with another receiving threat to complement Calvin.

6. Sammie Lee Hill, DT, Stillman at #115 overall. Grade: B-. The Lions finally address the defensive line, taking the project out of a D II school. Hill at 6'3" and 330 lbs. SHOULD take up multiple blockers at a time with his massive size, but there's no guarantee he will. He has a long way to develop and was over-drafted here due to his physical upside. At the least he's a fresh face on the DL which the Lions need. There were only a couple better DT prospects available at this point, such as Terrance Taylor of Michigan, so the choice of Hill in the 4th round can't be criticized too much.

7. Aaron Brown, RB, TCU at #192 overall. Grade: B. Wait, the Lions still haven't drafted an offensive lineman, yet? Really? Brown is a decent value here, but his peak is probably a 3rd down back, which Brian Calhoun is right now. Look for Brown to fight for a roster spot with Calhoun, and him to have little impact on the team. At this point it's probably too late to find a reliable offensive lineman, but still, they haven't even tried. Out of a 6th round pick, even if Brown turns out to be a 3rd down back this year (which he probably will, Calhoun has never really impressed) that's a positive selection.

8. Lydon Murtha, OT, Nebraska at #228 overall. Grade: A. Great pick this low in the draft. Murtha could have gone as high as the third or fourth round with how well he performed at the combine. He ran the fastest 40 of any lineman, and did the same in the 20 yard shuttle and the 3 cone drill. He's definitely a pass blocker and not a run blocker, but at 6'7" 306, he has the size and speed to develop into a serviceable to good pass blocking LT.

9. Zach Follett, OLB, California at #235 overall. Grade: D. And Lions fans, your starter at MLB is officially Chris Graham! Oh wait, that's bad. Chris Graham has no experience and is only 225 pounds, while Cody Spencer has been passed through multiple organizations as a backup and released multiple times without any second thought. OLB was not nearly as much of a concern as MLB was and still is. Darry Beckwith, LSU's starting middle linebacker, was available at this point, and still may be, because he wasn't even drafted! Beckwith was projected to be a mid-round pick, and has the capability to start in the NFL. He's good in pass coverage and a good tackler which the Lions need.. oh wait this is supposed to be about Zack Follett. He'll be a career backup, and only will start if pressed into the duty due to injury, kind of like Cody Spencer should be! It's highly unlikely he even makes the team.

10. Dan Gronkowski, TE, Maryland at #255 overall. Grade: F. The Lions really needed a TE, except for the fact that they drafted the best one in the 2009 class already. Stupid pick, the guy won't even see the field, and probably won't make the team. They could have picked up a veteran and been just fine, or selected Beckwith here.

Overall grade: B-. For the most part, the Lions got value picks at their drafting slots, but I feel they had more important needs. At the same time, when your team has at least 15 starting spots that should be replaced, you can't expect one draft to cover them all.The Lions made it public that they would draft talent over need this year because of the lack of talent on the current roster, and their approach definitely shows that. I think starting the franchise QB off with an at most average offensive line is a bad idea, but they decided Stafford would be the face of the Lions' franchise for years to come. Pettigrew, Delmas, Williams, Hill, and Murtha were all fine picks and the first four should see serious playing time this year. The Lions did well getting value with their later round picks, but at the wrong positions.

Saturday, April 25, 2009

5 Winners and Losers of the NFL Draft, Day 1

The first and second rounds of the NFL Draft came to a close earlier tonight, so who can be proclaimed the "winners" and "losers" of today's selections?

The draft is not by any means an exact science, but the first couple days are the days where prospects' roles and futures can best be projected.

5 Winners:

1. St. Louis Rams: Jason Smith, OT, Baylor at #2 overall, James Laurinaitis, MLB, Ohio State at #35 Overall.

Funny thing about this team's selections is, this is what I saw as the Lions' ideal first two picks. The Rams went about building a franchise the right way, replacing their Hall of Fame LT Orlando Pace, who was cut as a cap casualty, with the best LT prospect in this draft. Smith should be a constant on their line, and while a HOF career can't be promised, a solid career is the most a GM can realistically ask for.

And that's exactly what Laurinaitis will do as well. The Rams got a leader for their defense at MLB, and he's a very versatile linebacker, who is above average in pass coverage and good against the run. He will be a constant on this team for a decade or more. This is unquestionably the best draft in my opinion.

2. Atlanta Falcons: Peria Jerry, DT, Ole Miss at #24 overall, William Moore, S, Missouri at #55 overall.

These picks aren't flashy by any means, but they fill two pressing needs. Arizona did them in last year by running it down their throats and then going over the top to Larry Fitzgerald. Jerry should help fortify the 25th best run defense they sported last year. Their current DTs are more pass rushers than run stoppers, so great move here. William Moore was rated across the board as the best safety in this class, even after a disappointing senior season, yet he is the 5th off the board. Moore is an outstanding athlete at 6'1" 230, who has the capability to be a hard-hitting SS that drops back in zone coverage well. Atlanta's new regime really has a good thing going, and is making Atlanta into an NFL power slowly but surely.

#3. Green Bay Packers: B.J. Raji, DT, Boston College at #9 overall, Clay Matthews, OLB, USC, at #26 overall.

B.J. Raji at #9 is a great pick because he will slide in to nose tackle and be consistent there for the Packers. Them switching to a 3-4 this year would have worked on the surface, but they don't have depth to support it, so Raji helps there, and will push Ryan Pickett to the bench fairly quickly. Trading up for Clay Matthews was brilliant. He'll be a great pass rusher, and should start right away at ROLB for them, providing a valid pass rushing option opposite Aaron Kampman.

#4. New Orleans Saints: Malcolm Jenkins, CB, Ohio State at #14 overall.

The Saints may only have had one pick, but it was a great one. The widely projected pick here,
Jenkins gives needed help to the secondary the Saints keep attempting to upgrade but fail to. Jenkins projects as a great playmaker in the secondary, likely at Free Safety, but he could work as a man to man corner as well. He and Laurinaitis both suffered when they went back to school and experts over-analyzed them to hell and back. They're both underrated and going to be solid players.

#5. San Francisco 49ers: Michael Crabtree, WR, Texas Tech at #10 overall.

This was a great pick, the 49ers' receivers are god awful and Crabtree will immediately be the best receiver on their roster. He fell because of concerns over his speed, and his ankle injury (which he revealed right after the draft is healed). Jerry Rice will be in the 49ers headquarters each day without a doubt, coaching up Crabtree on the finer points of playing WR. Crabtree landed in the perfect situation to develop even further.

5 Losers:

#1. Oakland Raiders: Darrius Heyward-Bey, WR, Maryland at #7 overall, Michael Mitchell, S, Ohio at #47 overall.

Both picks are typical Al Davis. Athletic freaks with speed and size are all he ever considers concerning draft prospects and he showed it here. Michael Crabtree, a great WR prospect, was passed up on by the Raiders here for a WR with more speed but underwhelming performance on the field. Michael Mitchell was a mid to late round pick at safety and a complete reach here because, shocker, he was the best athlete at safety! The Raiders really are doomed to failure as long as Al Davis is running the show.

#2. Houston Texans: Brian Cushing, OLB, USC at #15 overall, Connor Barwin, DE, Cincinnati, #46 overall.

Cushing is a good linebacker, but not in the 4-3 in my opinion. Cushing's strength is pass-rushing and he looks like more of a defensive end than a linebacker. Unfortunately, he just doesn't have the skill set to succeed there. He'll be a decent pro, but not good enough to justify the 15th pick. Barwin is another DE/OLB tweener which is curious. Taking two OLB/DE tweeners consecutively was not a need for the Texans. They should have looked to acquire another WR or defensive back at 46 in my opinion. Barwin's a better pass rusher but is weaker than Cushing so he can only really play on 3rd downs.

#3. Kansas City Chiefs: Tyson Jackson, DE, LSU, at #3 overall.

Jackson was a reach here, he wasn't even one of the ten best players available. Does that mean he won't be a solid pro? Not at all, because I believe he'll have a good career, but 3-4 DEs simply do not merit 9 to 10 million a year, which his contract will likely entail. They traded their 2nd for Cassel, and if they really are considering the rumored contract of 36 million guaranteed for Cassel, then the trade goes from okay to horrible. They failed to improve the OL through any means this offseason or in the draft thus far, they really needed Eugene Monroe more than Tyson Jackson.

#4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Josh Freeman, QB, Kansas State at #17 overall.

Josh Freeman is a complete reach here, if he had gone in the 2nd round at this same spot it would have been a decent pick. Freeman is either going to be a star or a complete bust, and I don't ever see him producing well at the NFL-level. He's inaccurate and inconsistent, which are not qualities of a great face of a franchise. Not the best move by Tampa here.

#5. Buffalo Bills: Aaron Maybin, DE, PSU at #11 overall, Eric Wood, C, Louisville at #28 overall, Jairus Byrd, CB, Oregon at #42 overall, Andy Levitre, OL, Oregon at #51 overall.

They sure got quantity but I don't see them filling many needs here. Wood wasn't a horrible pick but they really needed a tackle to replace Jason Peters in the draft and didn't take one. Aaron Maybin just looks like a bust, he is undersized and ran a 4.88 at the combine when athleticism was supposed to be his strong suit. Maybin is simply not a good defensive end. Jairus Byrd is a cornerback they didn't need, they keep drafting secondary players every year when that is really the only complete strength on their team. The Bills better hope T.O. helps a lot, because it doesn't look like their first day of the draft helped much.