Thursday, March 26th:
(5) Purdue vs (1) Connecticut: Purdue. This pick is a complete hunch on my part. I'm not a huge fan of Connecticut this year and feel like Purdue plays the tough gritty style like a Pitt to give UConn a serious challenge. UConn is a horrible 3 point shooting team, so if Kramer or Jackson can stay with AJ Price, the Huskies really have no other legitimate threats other than the 30% 3 point shooter Craig Austrie.
Jajuan Johnson, E'Twaun Moore and Robbie Hummel are all going to have to play solid games and stay out of foul trouble. Jeff Adrien and Hasheem Thabeet have huge size advantages on Hummel and Johnson, but Purdue seems to be able to overcome size with toughness and solid defense. Purdue's Lewis Jackson is going to have to play a masterful game at point guard and continuously drive into the heart of UConn's defense and kick the ball out to 3 point shooters. He or Chris Kramer will also have to play solid defense on AJ Price because he can go off for 30 on any given night. If Purdue drains their 3s and draws Thabeet into foul trouble or frustrates him, they can win this game.
(4) Xavier vs (1) Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh. Xavier may play solid defense but Pitt is simply going to be too much to handle. Levance Fields played very well against Oklahoma State with 13 points and 9 assists, only letting up 2 turnovers while being guarded by Byron Eaton who had 5 steals in the game. Xavier does have depth with their forwards but none are as talented in the post as Dejuan Blair. Xavier will give them a run for their money but Pittsburgh will pull out an 8 to 10 point win in the end.
(3) Missouri vs (2) Memphis: Memphis. This should be a high-scoring exciting game similarly to Marquette/Memphis. The teams are fairly evenly matched but Memphis definiely has a decided edge in the backcourt with Tyreke Evans and Antonio Anderson. DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons will need to dominate the post if Missouri wants to win this game, where Memphis' starters of Robert Dozier and Shawn Taggart are also strong. Dozier seems to get in foul trouble often so that will be the game's X-Factor. If he stays on the floor for the majority of the game, Memphis will win this game.
(3) Villanova vs (2) Duke: Villanova. Duke pulled out a win against Texas on Saturday but their run is going to end here. Villanova is a very versatile, tough, athletic team. Duke is definitely a softer team and they are going to get pushed around in this game. Dante Cunningham is going to have a big game against Kyle Singler and Villanova simply has too many reliable scoring options for Duke to account for. Villanova will consistently drive into the paint and will be able to create openings for teammates at the 3-point line or simply take the ball themselves and score. Duke's frontcourt is very weak so I'd expect Villanova to be going inside a lot.
Friday, March 27:
(12) Arizona vs (1) Louisville: Louisville. Arizona only has 3 reliable players, Louisville's depth is going to spell the end of Arizona's run. If Arizona wins this game, Nic Wise is going to have to play extremely well against the unreliable backcourt of Louisville. Edgar Sosa and Andre McGee aren't exactly world-beaters, and wise should consistenly be able to cause trouble for them. Jordan Hill and Budinger will also have to put up 20+ point performances if Arizona expects to compete, much less win this game.
(3) Syracuse vs (2) Oklahoma: Syracuse. This will be a very interesting matchup, I really like both of these teams. Syracuse would like to throw big bodies at Blake Griffin and continuously send him to the line or draw him into committing early fouls. Arinze Onuaku of Syracuse has the size to give Blake Griffin trouble and will need to disrupt Griffin to help Syracuse win this game.Jonny Flynn is a quicker and better point guard than Austin Johnson so Syracuse has a decided advantage there. Both teams have valid 3-point shooting threats and solid second scorers in Willie Warren of Oklahoma and Eric Devendorf of Syracuse. This will be a close game and one to keep your eye on surely.
(3) Kansas vs (2) Michigan State: Michigan State. Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich are playing their best basketball of the season but Michigan State is a veteran-laden team that will pull this game out. Kalin Lucas is an amazing pointguard and will pose an interesting matchup for Sherron Collins. Goran Suton has to shoot better than 1/10 as he did against USC, and will provide a much needed scorer for the Spartans. Raymar Morgan needs to show up as well and put up a 15-20 point game.
(4) Gonzaga vs (1) North Carolina: North Carolina. This should be a fairly easy win for North Carolina, I simply don't believe Gonzaga has the talent to match up with the Tar Heels. Wayne Ellington should go off in this game, possibly for 30 points. If Gonzaga wants a chance to win, they need Pargo to dominate Ty Lawson and for Josh Heytvelt to draw fouls inside on Tyler Hansbrough.
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Sunday, March 22, 2009
Sunday 2nd Round Picks
Arizona State vs Syracuse: Syracuse. James Harden and Jeff Pendergraph are a good duo for Arizona State but past that, Arizona State doesn't have much. Syracuse will hit the boards harder and outrebound Arizona State, and with their trio of Flynn, Devendorf and Rautins they should prevail. I expect a big game from Harden so this game could be pretty close, should be a good one.
Wisconsin vs Xavier: Xavier. Xavier's depth is simply going to be too much for Wisconsin. Xavier has plenty of size across the court, with a 3 to 4 inch advantage at every guard position, and has plenty of depth in the front court. Senior guard B.J. Raymond will likely be guarded by Trevon Hughes, who had the unenviable task of guarding Toney Douglas on Friday and didn't do too badly. Douglas' 26 points may say otherwise but Hughes played masterful defense on him to open the game and Douglas never got an easy basket. Xavier's guards on the bench aren't necessarily scorers so if Wisconsin can draw some fouls on them they have a chance.
Kansas vs Dayton: Kansas. Dayton has trouble scoring and that could doom them against a very solid Kansas team. Dayton suffers in 3 point shooting, with their best percentage coming from their specialist James Fabrizius at 38.1%. Kansas has 4 legitimate 3 point shooting threats above 37.5%. Cole Aldrich should be able to have his way inside as well. Chris Wright should have a big game though as he's more athletic than Kansas' big men, so a masterful performance by him and a solid 3 point shooting performance from the guards could lead to an upset, but it's doubtful. Look for a 15 point win here for Kansas.
Cleveland St. vs Arizona: Arizona. Cleveland State is going to put up a strong fight here, but I see Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger having huge games here. All 3 of Cleveland State's guards are explosive however and if they are able to consistently get penetration and get to the rim, this could be a fantastic game and Cleveland State could pull another upset. Don't let the 13 and 12 seeds fools you in this game either though, Cleveland State was deserving of a slightly higher seed and Arizona has the talent to be a 6 or 7 seed, but lost quite a few games down the stretch. This could be a very exciting game.
Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma State: Pittsburgh. Dejuan Blair is going to have a monstrous game here. Oklahoma State doesn't have one player that plays consistently that is taller than 6'8" or bigger than 235 lbs. Blair at 6'7" and 265 lbs. is going to have a true advantage here in the post and I could see a 20/20 performance here. Also look for Sam Young to have a solid game, going for about 20 today. I do think Byron Eaton is going to be able to frustrate Levance Fields so that is a matchup to watch. If Eaton can generate turnovers, Pitt could see a slight scare here as Oklahoma State can score with anybody. If their 3 pointers fall, this game will be exciting. But I'd say a 15-20 point win for Pitt is more likely.
Missouri vs Marquette: Missouri. Marquette could get in big trouble early here, even with the return of Dominic James. If DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons can draw a couple early fouls on Lazar Hayward, Marquette is only going to have guards that can contribute and no inside game. If Hayward stays out of foul trouble and James doesn't miss a beat in the limited minutes he'll play, Marquette could very well pull the upset. This should be an up-tempo and exciting game, and the best match-up of the day.
Michigan State vs USC: Michigan State. This game could be up-tempo as well. The guard play in this game is exceptional with Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton and Raymar Morgan (even though he's a forward) matching up against Daniel Hackett, Dwight Lewis, and Marcus Simmons of USC. The match-ups to watch though in this game will be in the front court. Demar Derozan and Taj Gibson are definitely quicker than Delvon Roe and Goran Suton of Michigan State, and Suton likes to play on the perimeter. Suton has to establish himself as a force inside in this game, or Michigan State could get themselves into a nail-biter. This is one of the best match-ups USC could have with a top seed because USC's athleticism is on par with almost any team in the country as is Michigan State's.
Louisville vs Siena: Louisville. Louisville has a decided advantage in the front court, Samuels, Clark and Williams all have the capability of dominating this game over Siena's smaller front court. Edwin Ubiles of Siena is going to have to play the best game of his life against Terrence Williams if the Saints want to stay in this game, but even then it may not matter as Louisville has so much depth at forward that it should overwhelm the Saints. Look for a fairly easy win for the Cardinals here as they move onto the Sweet 16 with little challenge.
Wisconsin vs Xavier: Xavier. Xavier's depth is simply going to be too much for Wisconsin. Xavier has plenty of size across the court, with a 3 to 4 inch advantage at every guard position, and has plenty of depth in the front court. Senior guard B.J. Raymond will likely be guarded by Trevon Hughes, who had the unenviable task of guarding Toney Douglas on Friday and didn't do too badly. Douglas' 26 points may say otherwise but Hughes played masterful defense on him to open the game and Douglas never got an easy basket. Xavier's guards on the bench aren't necessarily scorers so if Wisconsin can draw some fouls on them they have a chance.
Kansas vs Dayton: Kansas. Dayton has trouble scoring and that could doom them against a very solid Kansas team. Dayton suffers in 3 point shooting, with their best percentage coming from their specialist James Fabrizius at 38.1%. Kansas has 4 legitimate 3 point shooting threats above 37.5%. Cole Aldrich should be able to have his way inside as well. Chris Wright should have a big game though as he's more athletic than Kansas' big men, so a masterful performance by him and a solid 3 point shooting performance from the guards could lead to an upset, but it's doubtful. Look for a 15 point win here for Kansas.
Cleveland St. vs Arizona: Arizona. Cleveland State is going to put up a strong fight here, but I see Jordan Hill and Chase Budinger having huge games here. All 3 of Cleveland State's guards are explosive however and if they are able to consistently get penetration and get to the rim, this could be a fantastic game and Cleveland State could pull another upset. Don't let the 13 and 12 seeds fools you in this game either though, Cleveland State was deserving of a slightly higher seed and Arizona has the talent to be a 6 or 7 seed, but lost quite a few games down the stretch. This could be a very exciting game.
Pittsburgh vs Oklahoma State: Pittsburgh. Dejuan Blair is going to have a monstrous game here. Oklahoma State doesn't have one player that plays consistently that is taller than 6'8" or bigger than 235 lbs. Blair at 6'7" and 265 lbs. is going to have a true advantage here in the post and I could see a 20/20 performance here. Also look for Sam Young to have a solid game, going for about 20 today. I do think Byron Eaton is going to be able to frustrate Levance Fields so that is a matchup to watch. If Eaton can generate turnovers, Pitt could see a slight scare here as Oklahoma State can score with anybody. If their 3 pointers fall, this game will be exciting. But I'd say a 15-20 point win for Pitt is more likely.
Missouri vs Marquette: Missouri. Marquette could get in big trouble early here, even with the return of Dominic James. If DeMarre Carroll and Leo Lyons can draw a couple early fouls on Lazar Hayward, Marquette is only going to have guards that can contribute and no inside game. If Hayward stays out of foul trouble and James doesn't miss a beat in the limited minutes he'll play, Marquette could very well pull the upset. This should be an up-tempo and exciting game, and the best match-up of the day.
Michigan State vs USC: Michigan State. This game could be up-tempo as well. The guard play in this game is exceptional with Kalin Lucas, Travis Walton and Raymar Morgan (even though he's a forward) matching up against Daniel Hackett, Dwight Lewis, and Marcus Simmons of USC. The match-ups to watch though in this game will be in the front court. Demar Derozan and Taj Gibson are definitely quicker than Delvon Roe and Goran Suton of Michigan State, and Suton likes to play on the perimeter. Suton has to establish himself as a force inside in this game, or Michigan State could get themselves into a nail-biter. This is one of the best match-ups USC could have with a top seed because USC's athleticism is on par with almost any team in the country as is Michigan State's.
Louisville vs Siena: Louisville. Louisville has a decided advantage in the front court, Samuels, Clark and Williams all have the capability of dominating this game over Siena's smaller front court. Edwin Ubiles of Siena is going to have to play the best game of his life against Terrence Williams if the Saints want to stay in this game, but even then it may not matter as Louisville has so much depth at forward that it should overwhelm the Saints. Look for a fairly easy win for the Cardinals here as they move onto the Sweet 16 with little challenge.
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Saturday 2nd Round Picks
Well, the first round is over, and Friday night brought a fitting end to the excitement that always accompanies the first round of the NCAA tournament.
Now for some second round picks:
UCLA vs Villanova: Villanova. UCLA squeaked out a victory against VCU but don't be fooled, VCU is a good team, and UCLA is still a solid team even with their struggles within the season. This should be a quality game as the guards of both teams are very solid, but Dante Cunningham should put Villanova over the top. His versatility will more than likely overwhelm UCLA and lead Villanova to victory. Did I mention Villanova/UCLA is being played in Philly in Villanova's home arena?
Maryland vs Memphis: Memphis. Memphis should win this one, they simply have more talent than Maryland, but don't expect Maryland to just fold over, I see this being a close game. Greivis Vazquez will have a tough match-up, he'll be defended by C-USA's Defensive Player of the Year, Antonio Anderson more likely than not. Unless Vazquez puts up 25+, Memphis will pull this out.
Connecticut vs Texas A&M: Connecticut. UConn should pull this out pretty easily, A&M just doesn't have near the talent than UConn does inside or outside. Look for a 15+ point win and Thabeet to have a pretty statline.
Purdue vs Washington: Purdue. This is what I think will be the best game on Saturday besides UCLA/Villanova. Both teams match up well. Washington's star point guard Isiah Thomas against Purdue's Lewis Jackson will be a fun matchup of small, quick PGs. Chris Kramer of Purdue is not a scorer and he'll have to make sure that Justin Dentmon of Washington isn't allowed to score either. Washington's key player will be Quincy Pondexter as Purdue doesn't really have as versatile of a player to matchup with him except Robbie Hummel, who has to stay at PF. Jajuan Johnson is Purdue's most important player and he'll be matched up against Washington's best player, Jon Brockman. If Johnson can have a big game, Purdue will take this game.
LSU vs North Carolina: North Carolina. This shouldn't be a close game but there's a slight chance it could be if Ty Lawson isn't his normal self and if Tyler Hansbrough gets in foul trouble.
Oklahoma vs Michigan: Oklahoma. Michigan's half-court style will keep them close for a majority of the game, but Oklahoma is too good here. Blake Griffin could pull down 20 rebounds potentially in this game and should score at least 25.
Gonzaga vs Western Kentucky: Gonzaga. Western Kentucky is going to put up a big fight against Gonzaga in this game and it could end up being close. Mendez-Valdez and A.J. Slaughter are solid guards and can keep up with Bouldin and Pargo of Gonzaga. The matchup nightmare in this game for Western Kentucky is Josh Heytvelt against Jeremy Evans, the 6'9" 190 lb. center. If he plays well, Gonzaga will roll in this game. Even if not, Gonzaga's depth and versatility will prevail.
Texas vs Duke: Duke. Texas has one of the most stagnant offenses in the country, relying at some times solely on A.J. Abrams to score for them. Damion James is one of my favorite players in the country, but his outside game has suffered this year. Still his size and versatility can pose a problem for Duke. If Dexter Pittman at 6'10" and almost 300 pounds can get 20+ points and play the majority of the game, Texas could pull the upset, but it's not likely. Kyle Singler will pull the big Pittman outside and free up the paint for cuts and drives by Gerald Henderson who should have an extremely impressive game.
Now for some second round picks:
UCLA vs Villanova: Villanova. UCLA squeaked out a victory against VCU but don't be fooled, VCU is a good team, and UCLA is still a solid team even with their struggles within the season. This should be a quality game as the guards of both teams are very solid, but Dante Cunningham should put Villanova over the top. His versatility will more than likely overwhelm UCLA and lead Villanova to victory. Did I mention Villanova/UCLA is being played in Philly in Villanova's home arena?
Maryland vs Memphis: Memphis. Memphis should win this one, they simply have more talent than Maryland, but don't expect Maryland to just fold over, I see this being a close game. Greivis Vazquez will have a tough match-up, he'll be defended by C-USA's Defensive Player of the Year, Antonio Anderson more likely than not. Unless Vazquez puts up 25+, Memphis will pull this out.
Connecticut vs Texas A&M: Connecticut. UConn should pull this out pretty easily, A&M just doesn't have near the talent than UConn does inside or outside. Look for a 15+ point win and Thabeet to have a pretty statline.
Purdue vs Washington: Purdue. This is what I think will be the best game on Saturday besides UCLA/Villanova. Both teams match up well. Washington's star point guard Isiah Thomas against Purdue's Lewis Jackson will be a fun matchup of small, quick PGs. Chris Kramer of Purdue is not a scorer and he'll have to make sure that Justin Dentmon of Washington isn't allowed to score either. Washington's key player will be Quincy Pondexter as Purdue doesn't really have as versatile of a player to matchup with him except Robbie Hummel, who has to stay at PF. Jajuan Johnson is Purdue's most important player and he'll be matched up against Washington's best player, Jon Brockman. If Johnson can have a big game, Purdue will take this game.
LSU vs North Carolina: North Carolina. This shouldn't be a close game but there's a slight chance it could be if Ty Lawson isn't his normal self and if Tyler Hansbrough gets in foul trouble.
Oklahoma vs Michigan: Oklahoma. Michigan's half-court style will keep them close for a majority of the game, but Oklahoma is too good here. Blake Griffin could pull down 20 rebounds potentially in this game and should score at least 25.
Gonzaga vs Western Kentucky: Gonzaga. Western Kentucky is going to put up a big fight against Gonzaga in this game and it could end up being close. Mendez-Valdez and A.J. Slaughter are solid guards and can keep up with Bouldin and Pargo of Gonzaga. The matchup nightmare in this game for Western Kentucky is Josh Heytvelt against Jeremy Evans, the 6'9" 190 lb. center. If he plays well, Gonzaga will roll in this game. Even if not, Gonzaga's depth and versatility will prevail.
Texas vs Duke: Duke. Texas has one of the most stagnant offenses in the country, relying at some times solely on A.J. Abrams to score for them. Damion James is one of my favorite players in the country, but his outside game has suffered this year. Still his size and versatility can pose a problem for Duke. If Dexter Pittman at 6'10" and almost 300 pounds can get 20+ points and play the majority of the game, Texas could pull the upset, but it's not likely. Kyle Singler will pull the big Pittman outside and free up the paint for cuts and drives by Gerald Henderson who should have an extremely impressive game.
Sunday, March 15, 2009
5 Players and Teams to Watch in March Madness
1. Terrence Williams, G/F, Louisville: Williams is arguably the most versatile player in the country and leads his team that will likely be awarded a #1 seed later tonight. His scoring numbers don't look impressive as he only averages 12 PPG, but that's a testament to Louisville's depth. His 8 rebounds a game show his willingness to go inside and play tough, it truly is a mainstay of his game. He also nets 5 assists and 2.5 steals per game, which shows he's unselfish and a defensive presence that other teams truly must plan for. His performance last night against Syracuse: 11 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, 7 steals showed how Williams can take over a game, even without putting up 20 points.
2. Sam Young, F, Pittsburgh: Sam Young is having a repeat of his solid season from 2007-08, yet has received little praise due to the breakout of Dejuan Blair. Young averages 18 points per game and grabs 6 rebounds even though he is more of a perimeter player at the SF position. He still has the ability to go inside however and play in the post. He completely took over their second game against UConn with 31 points and 10 rebounds, even with Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien manning the paint, two tough and solid post presences on defense. If Pittsburgh goes far, his solid play will be the reason why.
3. Chester Frazier, G, Illinois: This one is interesting, as he may not even be able to play in the NCAA Tournament at all. Frazier injured his hand in practice and missed the Big Ten tournament as he got minor surgery two days ago. If Frazier is not with Illinois, they are a completely different team. Frazier, who posted the best Assist to Turnover ratio in the Big Ten this season also made the Big Ten's First All-Defensive team. He is a pest on the floor and can completely lock down the opposition's best guard if given the chance. Frazier doesn't score much (5.7 PPG), but his defensive impact on the game and senior leadership truly are felt and makes Illinois a far better team. With him, they're easily a top 25 team and could make a Sweet 16 or even Elite 8 run. Without him, they might be looking at a first round exit.
4. Willie Warren, G, Oklahoma: Blake Griffin gets all the fanfare when people talk about Oklahoma, as he should, being the best player in college basketball. But Willie Warren, the freshman star slips under the radar consistently. In his rookie season, Warren is putting up 14.8 PPG and is the second most reliable player on this team. The other 3 members of the starting lineup in Oklahoma are 2 seniors and a junior, so the fact that Warren has been able to take on such a large role in his first season speaks to his talent and ability. Willie put on a sensational performance against Texas only a few weeks back, with 27 points including six 3-pointers. Warren will need to be a solid scoring option if Oklahoma hopes to make a deep run in the tournament.
5. Jerel McNeal, G, Marquette: Ever since the loss of senior PG Dominic James late in February, McNeal's play has truly suffered, a large reason for Marquette's recent slide. While they have lost 5 of 6, McNeal is a combined 37/114 overall (32.5%). If McNeal can't score more efficiently, Marquette will be out of the tournament quickly. The combination of Jerel McNeal, Lazar Hayward, and Wesley Matthews is deadly, but only if they're efficient.
After the brackets are announced, I'll analyze a few team's paths and make my predictions on a few teams about early exits and deep runs into the tournament.
2. Sam Young, F, Pittsburgh: Sam Young is having a repeat of his solid season from 2007-08, yet has received little praise due to the breakout of Dejuan Blair. Young averages 18 points per game and grabs 6 rebounds even though he is more of a perimeter player at the SF position. He still has the ability to go inside however and play in the post. He completely took over their second game against UConn with 31 points and 10 rebounds, even with Hasheem Thabeet and Jeff Adrien manning the paint, two tough and solid post presences on defense. If Pittsburgh goes far, his solid play will be the reason why.
3. Chester Frazier, G, Illinois: This one is interesting, as he may not even be able to play in the NCAA Tournament at all. Frazier injured his hand in practice and missed the Big Ten tournament as he got minor surgery two days ago. If Frazier is not with Illinois, they are a completely different team. Frazier, who posted the best Assist to Turnover ratio in the Big Ten this season also made the Big Ten's First All-Defensive team. He is a pest on the floor and can completely lock down the opposition's best guard if given the chance. Frazier doesn't score much (5.7 PPG), but his defensive impact on the game and senior leadership truly are felt and makes Illinois a far better team. With him, they're easily a top 25 team and could make a Sweet 16 or even Elite 8 run. Without him, they might be looking at a first round exit.
4. Willie Warren, G, Oklahoma: Blake Griffin gets all the fanfare when people talk about Oklahoma, as he should, being the best player in college basketball. But Willie Warren, the freshman star slips under the radar consistently. In his rookie season, Warren is putting up 14.8 PPG and is the second most reliable player on this team. The other 3 members of the starting lineup in Oklahoma are 2 seniors and a junior, so the fact that Warren has been able to take on such a large role in his first season speaks to his talent and ability. Willie put on a sensational performance against Texas only a few weeks back, with 27 points including six 3-pointers. Warren will need to be a solid scoring option if Oklahoma hopes to make a deep run in the tournament.
5. Jerel McNeal, G, Marquette: Ever since the loss of senior PG Dominic James late in February, McNeal's play has truly suffered, a large reason for Marquette's recent slide. While they have lost 5 of 6, McNeal is a combined 37/114 overall (32.5%). If McNeal can't score more efficiently, Marquette will be out of the tournament quickly. The combination of Jerel McNeal, Lazar Hayward, and Wesley Matthews is deadly, but only if they're efficient.
After the brackets are announced, I'll analyze a few team's paths and make my predictions on a few teams about early exits and deep runs into the tournament.
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Detroit Tigers: Edwin Jackson? Is that the best you could do?
The Detroit Tigers were the team that baseball analysts across the country chose as the sure-fire AL representative in the 2008 World Series prior to the season. The trade for Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis had to work. Trading for two of the game's young stars in exchange for two prospects, Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, not yet prepared for the MLB stage was a no-brainer. Acquiring the dependable veteran Edgar Renteria, coming off of a career year, in exchange for the middling outfield prospect Gorkys Hernandez and a talented, young pitcher in Jair Jurrjens looked to be a great win-now move as well.
One year later, we look upon this team of destiny as an utter disappointment, and no major changes were made at all.
The only changes that were significant were the signing of Brandon Lyon to compete for closer and signing Gerald Laird, a competent catcher who is great at throwing out runners, to take over for Pudge.
The Detroit Tigers offense in general was a big positive. Miguel Cabrera started slow but he had an amazing second half, with 26 HRs and 79 RBIs in a mere three months. The impressive thing about Miguel Cabrera's season last year, his .292 average of last year was a bad year in average for him, hitting .320+ in the past three seasons. He only has room to improve and could even make a run at the AL Triple Crown if he doesn't slump early in the season.
Magglio was his dependable self, hitting .300+ with 21 HRs and 103 RBIs, cementing his status as the most consistent Tiger on this team. Curtis Granderson never got in a consistent groove last year, yet still had his best statistical year of his career. Some will point to his 2007 season and his .300 average with 23 HRs and 26 SBs, but last year Granderson truly matured as a player. His walk rate increased from 10 to 11.4% (the highest of his career), while his strikeout rate sharply fell to 20.1% (the lowest of his career.) This shows he has taken major steps to become a more disciplined hitter.
The only true disappointments were Edgar Renteria who had an abysmal sub .700 OPS and Brandon Inge whose hitting has declined steadily through the years.
The problem with the Tigers was the pathetic excuse they called a pitching staff. The projected rotation this year includes Justin Verlander (coming off a dreadful year where he led MLB in losses with 17), Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galaragga, Edwin Jackson, and Nate Robertson/Dontrelle Willis/Zach Miner. Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones have left the team, and as much as us fans may hate Todd Jones, in the end, he delivered more often than not.
Verlander can't pitch much worse than he did this past season, having an ERA near 5, and giving up 4 or more earned runs in 16 of his 33 outings, in comparison with his past two years when he had 18 of those outings combined. The speed of his fastball has fallen each of the past three seasons, and his offspeed pitches have increased in speed. A great pitcher has a great variance in speeds of his fastball and his offspeed pitches, and Verlander's arsenal is becoming less dangerous through the years. His fastball was 95.1 MPH on average in 2006, and was only 93.6 in 2008. That may not seem like a drastic difference, but when he stops throwing 100 MPH fastballs and is only throwing right around that average of 93-94 MPH fastballs, he is a completely different pitcher. He also saw his walk rate increase drastically. As sad as this is to say, it seems that Verlander got the Bonderman treatment. He was appointed as the next Tigers ace, and simply may not be able to live up to those lofty expectations. He can be a solid #2 starter, but I don't believe he's in the sport's elite group of pitchers any longer.
Armando Galaragga is the lone pitching bright spot of last year, who benefitted from an abnormally low BABIP. His .250 BABIP against was the third lowest of any MLB starter which is a horrifying statistic. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) takes strikeouts and walks out of the equation and calculates batting average solely from contact in at-bats for a hitter or against a pitcher. League average for BABIP against is .301. He is not an overpowering pitcher, throwing 90-92, and never had MLB success prior to last year. His strikeout and walk rates are completely average, and he left over 75% of his runners on base, when the league average is 70%. Even more alarming is that this .250 BABIP came with the defense of Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Cabrera behind him. Galaragga still somehow managed to have one of the biggest fluke years in MLB last year with one of the poorer infield defensive groupings in the league behind him. I'd look for his ERA to skyrocket to around 4.25-4.5 this year, and he will be a far less effective pitcher.
Edwin Jackson had a career year last year, and still profiled as a #4 or #5 pitcher in the AL. Nate Robertson is horrible, as is Dontrelle Willis who I won't even get into because it's not even worth considering him as an alternative. (34 walks in 24 innings? HOW?!?!?) I see Zach Miner winning the job out of these three, unless they do throw the stud prospect Rick Porcello into the fire this year and put him in the 5th starter slot.
In the bullpen, the Tigers made a quality signing in Brandon Lyon to the bullpen, but can he be a reliable closer? He is built in the mold of a Todd Jones, pitching to contact, and valuing control over overwhelming pitches, dictating where the hitter has to hit the ball. Zumaya and the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball, Fernando Rodney, will also be in contention for the closing job. The Tigers bullpen is servicable, with specialists such as Bobby Seay and Clay Rapada having good seasons, but the back end of the bullpen is quite unreliable. Numerous Tigers reliever prospects will likely see time in the majors this season such as Ryan Perry, who may even make the opening day roster.
As unfortunate as it is, it seems that this Tigers team is more likely to be a mediocre to below average AL Central team than the world-beater that they were sold as prior to the 2008 season unless some serious changes take place.
Projected lineup:
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Miguel Cabrera
LF Carlos Guillen
DH Gary Sheffield
C Gerald Laird
3B Brandon Inge
SS Adam Everett
Projected Rotation:
Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson, Zach Miner
Projected Record: 80-82, 4th place AL Central
One year later, we look upon this team of destiny as an utter disappointment, and no major changes were made at all.
The only changes that were significant were the signing of Brandon Lyon to compete for closer and signing Gerald Laird, a competent catcher who is great at throwing out runners, to take over for Pudge.
The Detroit Tigers offense in general was a big positive. Miguel Cabrera started slow but he had an amazing second half, with 26 HRs and 79 RBIs in a mere three months. The impressive thing about Miguel Cabrera's season last year, his .292 average of last year was a bad year in average for him, hitting .320+ in the past three seasons. He only has room to improve and could even make a run at the AL Triple Crown if he doesn't slump early in the season.
Magglio was his dependable self, hitting .300+ with 21 HRs and 103 RBIs, cementing his status as the most consistent Tiger on this team. Curtis Granderson never got in a consistent groove last year, yet still had his best statistical year of his career. Some will point to his 2007 season and his .300 average with 23 HRs and 26 SBs, but last year Granderson truly matured as a player. His walk rate increased from 10 to 11.4% (the highest of his career), while his strikeout rate sharply fell to 20.1% (the lowest of his career.) This shows he has taken major steps to become a more disciplined hitter.
The only true disappointments were Edgar Renteria who had an abysmal sub .700 OPS and Brandon Inge whose hitting has declined steadily through the years.
The problem with the Tigers was the pathetic excuse they called a pitching staff. The projected rotation this year includes Justin Verlander (coming off a dreadful year where he led MLB in losses with 17), Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galaragga, Edwin Jackson, and Nate Robertson/Dontrelle Willis/Zach Miner. Kenny Rogers and Todd Jones have left the team, and as much as us fans may hate Todd Jones, in the end, he delivered more often than not.
Verlander can't pitch much worse than he did this past season, having an ERA near 5, and giving up 4 or more earned runs in 16 of his 33 outings, in comparison with his past two years when he had 18 of those outings combined. The speed of his fastball has fallen each of the past three seasons, and his offspeed pitches have increased in speed. A great pitcher has a great variance in speeds of his fastball and his offspeed pitches, and Verlander's arsenal is becoming less dangerous through the years. His fastball was 95.1 MPH on average in 2006, and was only 93.6 in 2008. That may not seem like a drastic difference, but when he stops throwing 100 MPH fastballs and is only throwing right around that average of 93-94 MPH fastballs, he is a completely different pitcher. He also saw his walk rate increase drastically. As sad as this is to say, it seems that Verlander got the Bonderman treatment. He was appointed as the next Tigers ace, and simply may not be able to live up to those lofty expectations. He can be a solid #2 starter, but I don't believe he's in the sport's elite group of pitchers any longer.
Armando Galaragga is the lone pitching bright spot of last year, who benefitted from an abnormally low BABIP. His .250 BABIP against was the third lowest of any MLB starter which is a horrifying statistic. Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) takes strikeouts and walks out of the equation and calculates batting average solely from contact in at-bats for a hitter or against a pitcher. League average for BABIP against is .301. He is not an overpowering pitcher, throwing 90-92, and never had MLB success prior to last year. His strikeout and walk rates are completely average, and he left over 75% of his runners on base, when the league average is 70%. Even more alarming is that this .250 BABIP came with the defense of Carlos Guillen, Edgar Renteria, and Miguel Cabrera behind him. Galaragga still somehow managed to have one of the biggest fluke years in MLB last year with one of the poorer infield defensive groupings in the league behind him. I'd look for his ERA to skyrocket to around 4.25-4.5 this year, and he will be a far less effective pitcher.
Edwin Jackson had a career year last year, and still profiled as a #4 or #5 pitcher in the AL. Nate Robertson is horrible, as is Dontrelle Willis who I won't even get into because it's not even worth considering him as an alternative. (34 walks in 24 innings? HOW?!?!?) I see Zach Miner winning the job out of these three, unless they do throw the stud prospect Rick Porcello into the fire this year and put him in the 5th starter slot.
In the bullpen, the Tigers made a quality signing in Brandon Lyon to the bullpen, but can he be a reliable closer? He is built in the mold of a Todd Jones, pitching to contact, and valuing control over overwhelming pitches, dictating where the hitter has to hit the ball. Zumaya and the most unpredictable pitcher in baseball, Fernando Rodney, will also be in contention for the closing job. The Tigers bullpen is servicable, with specialists such as Bobby Seay and Clay Rapada having good seasons, but the back end of the bullpen is quite unreliable. Numerous Tigers reliever prospects will likely see time in the majors this season such as Ryan Perry, who may even make the opening day roster.
As unfortunate as it is, it seems that this Tigers team is more likely to be a mediocre to below average AL Central team than the world-beater that they were sold as prior to the 2008 season unless some serious changes take place.
Projected lineup:
CF Curtis Granderson
2B Placido Polanco
RF Magglio Ordonez
1B Miguel Cabrera
LF Carlos Guillen
DH Gary Sheffield
C Gerald Laird
3B Brandon Inge
SS Adam Everett
Projected Rotation:
Justin Verlander, Jeremy Bonderman, Armando Galarraga, Edwin Jackson, Zach Miner
Projected Record: 80-82, 4th place AL Central
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